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Out of Germany → the world

Which emerging market first?

India, China, Brazil, Southeast Asia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia — every German life-sciences company with global ambition eventually faces the same question, and answers it badly when it answers one market at a time. This is the decision framework: five criteria, six corridors, and a way to sequence two or three markets instead of betting on one.

12 min read By Alexander Baranov, Commercial & Partnerships Lead Updated 2026
In one paragraph

Do not pick an emerging market on size alone. Score each corridor on five axes — market size, reimbursement outlook, localisation demand, regulatory load, and how it opens the next market — against your specific product and cost base. China offers scale but severe price compression; India offers volume and a manufacturing base but a complex regime; Brazil is the most structured; Southeast Asia is the diversification hedge; Turkey rewards local production; Saudi Arabia rewards localisation through procurement. The modern pattern is poly-local: design for the market rather than exporting as an afterthought, and sequence two or three corridors so no single regulator or tender decides your fate. And in every one of them, the same rule holds — being allowed to sell is not the same as being paid.

The wrong question, and the right one

"Which market is biggest?" is the question that sinks emerging-market strategies. "Which market fits our product, our cost base and our next three years?" is the one that works.

Market size is seductive and almost useless on its own. China is enormous and can still be unprofitable for a premium importer caught in volume-based procurement. A mid-sized market with a friendlier reimbursement outlook and a lighter regulatory load can return more, sooner, with less capital at risk. The size of the prize means nothing until you know how much of it you can actually reach and keep.

So the useful exercise is comparative and multi-dimensional. Below is the framework we use on every outbound engagement, then a scorecard across the six corridors we cover in depth, and finally how to sequence rather than choose.

You are not choosing a market. You are sequencing a portfolio.

The framework

Five criteria, weighted to your product

No corridor wins on all five. The point is to weight them for your situation — a cash-constrained scale-up weights reimbursement and regulatory load; a large manufacturer weights size and localisation differently.

01

Market size

Addressable demand for your category — not the country's headline population.

02

Reimbursement outlook

Once approved, how likely and how profitably you actually get paid.

03

Localisation demand

How much local production or partnership the market expects — and rewards.

04

Regulatory load

Time, cost, local testing and clinical data before you can sell.

05

Opens the next market

Whether entry here becomes a springboard to a wider region.

The corridor scorecard

A directional comparison across the six corridors we cover, on the five criteria above. These are strategic generalisations to start a conversation, not product-specific ratings — your weighting and your category can move any row.

CorridorSizeReimbursementLocalisation demandReg. loadOpens next
China Very high Price-compressed High Heavy Limited
India High Mixed Moderate Moderate–complex Manufacturing base
Brazil High Public/private split Moderate Structured Mercosur
Southeast Asia Fragmented Varies by market Lower Varies (10 regulators) Regional hedge
Turkey Mid-large FX-exposed High Moderate Gulf & C. Asia
Saudi Arabia Mid Strong (public) High Moderate Gulf (GCC)
green favourable / lighter grey mixed / neutral amber demanding / heavier

Read the table as a starting grid, not a verdict. A low-cost, high-volume manufacturer reads China's amber reimbursement very differently from a premium innovator; a company already eyeing the Gulf sees Turkey and Saudi Arabia's amber localisation as one shared investment, not two costs.

The poly-local shift

The biggest change in emerging-market strategy this decade is the death of export-as-afterthought.

The old model was simple: build for your home market, then ship the surplus abroad with minimal adaptation. It is failing across exactly the corridors that matter. China wants "in China, for China". Turkey and Saudi Arabia reward local production in reimbursement and procurement. India offers its real advantages — cost, scale, a manufacturing base — only to those who commit to operating there, not merely selling in.

The replacement is poly-local: designing your regulatory, manufacturing and commercial approach for each market from the start, and accepting that some local footprint is the price of the best access. It costs more up front. It also converts the localisation demands in the scorecard from pure obstacles into shared investments that can serve a whole region.

The through-line

Every corridor separates "allowed" from "paid"

Whatever you sequence, the same discipline applies market by market: a registration, a CE mark or an approval makes you eligible — it does not sell anything. Reimbursement, procurement, channel and price are a separate project in every single corridor on the scorecard.

It is the thesis under all of our work, inbound and outbound. If you read one supporting piece, make it authorized isn't paid.

How to sequence two or three markets

The output of the framework is not a winner. It is an order.

01

Anchor on a fundable first market

Pick a corridor that returns revenue and reference customers within a horizon your balance sheet can carry — often a structured market (Brazil) or a lighter-localisation one (parts of Southeast Asia), not the heaviest registration.

02

Add a market the first one opens

Use bridges deliberately: Turkey or Saudi Arabia toward the Gulf; India as a manufacturing base; Singapore as the Southeast Asian hub. Let one investment do double duty.

03

Time the heavyweight

Enter China (or any long, capital-heavy registration) when earlier corridors are funding it and your cost base can survive its pricing — rarely as your very first move.

04

Keep a hedge

Ensure no single regulator, payer or tender round controls your growth. Diversification is the point, not a side effect.

Two or three deliberate corridors beat one big bet — every time the one big bet meets a tender.

Read each corridor in depth

Each market has its own field guide — the regulator, the holder question, the localisation reality and the access gap, corridor by corridor.

New to the outbound direction entirely? Start with the overview, German companies going global.

How we help

From scorecard to sequence

Start with a fixed, written deliverable that scores your specific product across the corridors, then plan the sequence and the first market in a working session.

Step 1 · fixed deliverable

Global Market-Entry Roadmap

A one-off written roadmap that applies the five-criteria framework to your product across the corridors that fit — and recommends a sequence.

  • Your product scored on all five criteria
  • A shortlist of 2–3 corridors, ranked
  • A proposed entry sequence and rationale
  • The access gap and cost drivers per market
Order a roadmap
Step 2 · working session

Strategy consultation

A focused session to pressure-test the sequence, choose the fundable first market, and plan the bridges between corridors.

  • First-market choice and the reasoning
  • Which market opens which next
  • Where a local footprint is worth it
  • A prioritised first-90-days plan
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AB
By Alexander Baranov
Commercial & Partnerships Lead · outbound market entry

This article is a general educational framework for comparing emerging markets and is not legal, regulatory or investment advice. The scorecard is a directional strategic generalisation, not a product-specific rating; regulatory regimes, reimbursement rules, localisation policy and procurement practice in every market named change frequently. Confirm the current position for your specific product with the relevant national regulator and qualified local counsel before acting.